« SNCA is at a beer store near you | Main | Continuing with agriculture »
December 10, 2005
Starting on agriculture
I have been procrastinating because I feel inadequate to address this aspect of petroleum depletion effectively. But food security is an essential part of life after petroleum, so I will give it a try and hope readers will help me to shape up my thoughts.
First, I have gotten another data point on how much liquid biofuel we might be able to produce along with adequate food for the US population. I met Stan Sersen, founder of the Environmental Design and Resource Center in Jessup, MD http://www.enviro-center.com last week. He is involved in another enterprise, MidAtlantic Biodiesel, which is building a plant in Delaware to produce biodiesel from soybeans, animal fats, and waste vegetable oil.
I asked Stan what portion of today's liquid petroleum use in the US he thought could be met by biofuels. He cited some research, which I will try to locate, and suggested that 20 percent would be a valid number. Let's be generous and double that number, assuming we will master efficient biofuel production from cellulose, producing both ethanol and biodiesel. So somewhat less than half of the amount of liquid fuel we use in the US.
Now to growing food. Petroleum and natural gas are fundamental to food production and distribution in the US today. Farm machinery, of course, runs on liquid fuel. Natural gas is the feedstock for synthetic fertilizer. I'm not certain whether petroleum is a feedstock for pesticides and would welcome guidance on this question. Growing the food is only the beginning. Our grocery stores are supplied from great distance. It's probably safe to say that very little of the food in the grocery store is grown locally. More accurately, whatever portion of the food is grown locally has probably travelled long distances to a processing plant and then back to the local grocery store. This movement, of course, depends utterly on liquid fuel.
This dependence on liquid fuel pertains to meats and dairy products as well as produce.
So food production as we know it in the US will become increasingly expensive as the cost of liquid fuel increases. And probably less reliably available.
My next entry will go into local agriculture. I'll tell you that I am surprised at how well developed the local food market is.
Posted by aquacura.com at December 10, 2005 10:26 PM
Comments
I disagree with the premise that "So food production as we know it in the US will become increasingly expensive as the cost of liquid fuel increases. And probably less reliably available." Has anyone heard of greenhouses? One only has to look at Holland the world leader in greenhouse technology which grows a multitude of fresh vine ripened produce; multiple varieties of tomatoes, peppers, eggplants, cucumbers and many other food products. Again, the answer to the transition to reduced availability and higher priced fossil fuels is technological development on multiple fronts. I predict a huge growth in greenhouse production that will mirror the growth in distributed energy production. Distributed food production, with greenhouse complexes around all the major urban and population centers providing year round fresh fruit and vegetables. The improved yields, appearance, taste and flavor of fresh produce will be an improvement over today's agricultural supply chain. And by the way, what I am talking about is not some futuristic science fiction but a reality in Holland today. Despite being at latitude 52 and lacking in sunlight they have an industry that supports over 25,000 acres of glass greenhouses producing both food and ornamental products that are shipped all over the world. As energy rises in price this production will be distributed in closer proximity to population centers. It is a known fact that by exercising greater control over a crop's environment yield increases. Couple this wiith improved varieties, ongoing global research that will feed this varietal pipeline and the cornucopia we now have will be maintained and potentially improved.
Now in regards to the biofuels question. I think it is very important to distinguish between biodiesel and ethanol. A biodiesel industry is being created in the US and will continue to grow. However, my bet for the winner in the liquid renewable fuel race is on cellulosic ethanol as the long term winner. Again, further technological development will be required and having gas approach $3.00 a gallon recently will do more to drive investment in this area than any government policy. And of course the big one; The Fisher Tropsch process. Anyone read the recent New York Times article about the governor of Montana (Montana is the Saudi Arabia of coal) who brings around with him diesel made from coal? How did the Nazi's fuel the war effort? They did it by coal gassification and further processing it into a liquid diesel fuel. Coal is the 800 lb. gorilla that nobody wants to recognize as a huge long term source of liquid fuel.
My conclusion; it is great that energy prices are rising. This is fueling huge investment in the cleantech area. Have trust in entrepreneurs and markets and NOT in government policy. We will build homegrown energy in the US from a combination of renewables, coal and nuclear (the other 800 lb. gorilla that nobody wants to talk about) and in the process create a healthier economy and cleaner environment! That is it for now.
Posted by: Paul Sellew at December 12, 2005 06:32 PM
I like the idea of greenhouse-grown produce because it contributes to food security. If we grow food close to where we live we will be less reliant on transport.
But I continue to believe that the cost of producing food will increase. Our food production processes have been able to offer inexpensive food to US consumers largely because of cheap petroleum and natural gas. Moving back toward local production will undoubtedly result in higher costs.
As for the eventual sources of liquid fuels, I respect Paul's observations regarding coal (and Albertans in Canada would say the same of tar sands). As the price of petroleum increases, making liquid fuel from these resources will become cost-effective. Likewise, I expect we (either in the US or elsewhere) will perfect the process to derive liquid fuel from cellulose.
My interest in liquid fuel relates to where we might choose to live. Whether liquid fuel becomes scarce and expensive, or just expensive, I expect some of us will want to live in places that do not make us so dependent on driving.
OTOH, I appreciate the ideas on petroleum and liquid fuel, and welcome continuing comments.
Posted by: Dave Sheridan at December 15, 2005 08:59 AM