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October 23, 2005
Biofuels: Two opinions
I am choosing to present the opinions of two well-known energy professionals regarding the prospect of biofuels -- which I will define as liquid fuels derived from organic material -- replacing liquid fuels derived from petroleum.
On the optimistic end of the spectrum is Amory Lovins at the Rocky Mountain Institute. Pretty far in the other direction is Vaclav Smil at the University of Manitoba.
The RMI article, from the Fall 2005 newsletter, is actually authored by Nathan Glasgow and Lena Hansen, but it presents points that Dr. Lovins has made over the years. The authors suggest that cellulosic feedstocks could be derived from waste streams, and that crops that can be fermented directly to produce ethanol can be grown on marginal land not suited for food production, or on some of the 17 million acres of Conservation Reserve Program land that is currently not cultivated.
Dr. Smil suggests a more pessimistic situation in his recent Energy at the Crossroads, stating pretty firmly that the U.S. does not have sufficient land to grow food and liquid fuel feedstock.
I believe the RMI assertions might be a little too optimistic, for several reasons. First, although I believe we will eventually develop commercially viable processes to break down cellulose for ethanol fermentation, the processes that are currently used do not seem to be scalable economically. And I believe the simple assertion that marginal land or currently reserved, arable land could be committed to ethanol feedstock (or, for that matter, to oil seed production for biodiesel) is too facile. Marginal lands are marginal because they are steeply sloped, prone to erosion, wet, etc. We would have to be thoughtful about turning these lands to crop production. And we may need the 17 million acres of arable land to grow food if synthetic fertilizer becomes scarce or costly due to petroleum depletion.
I also think Smil's findings (which do not seem to be better supported by analysis than the RMI assertions) might be too grim.
So, once again, we come to what seems to be a reasonable conclusion: we will figure out how to produce liquid fuel from organic feedstocks, but we will not be able to supply such alternate fuels at the rate our society currently consumes liquid petroleum fuel. That is my point: not that we will have to abandon internal combustion engines, jet engines, etc, but that we will have to cut back significantly on the miles travelled with such engines.
Posted by aquacura.com at October 23, 2005 07:23 PM
Comments
I fear that in our McDonalized society, where over consumption is the norm, the problem of energy consumption will never be solved until it is far too late. Then it will be true wars for oil because what we are seeing now will be nothing compared to what we are in for.
If anyone is interested in bio-diesel production, Matt Steiman (Director of the Fulton Center for Sustainability) at Wilson College located in Chambersburg is currently producing bio-diesel fuel. He runs his car, truck, and tractors from the fuel. Matt makes the fuel from oil used in the schools cafeteria.
Posted by: carla at October 27, 2005 10:32 PM