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September 20, 2005
Electric power, Part 1
Now that I've proffered my opinions of the changes that will occur in the transportation sector as petroleum-based liquid fuel becomes increasingly scarce (and I've heard only a few comments, so I must be right), we come to the second topic: electric power.
I'll warn you right now that I am not well-versed on this topic. But I told you that wouldn't stop me. I am going to offer some opinions, and would like feedback, with the objective of identifying the provisions a homeowner (or home builder) might make to deal with the transition.
So how will declining supplies of petroleum fuels affect electric power generation and distribution? Let me count the ways:
1. Declining natural gas supplies will affect the generation of power using gas-fired turbines. I believe these units are used to meet peak power demands. We should note that natural gas may deplete less quickly than liquid petroleum (but gas from off-shore sources will be transported by ships that presumably use liquid petroleum fuel).
2. Coal-fired and nuclear power generation will not be affected directly by depleting petroleum (and, of course, hydro). But every part of our society and economy depends on petroleum. Obviously, the trains that haul the coal are pulled by diesel-fueled locomotives, so declining oil will affect this kind of power -- at least by raising the cost of generating it. Nuclear and hydro depend on liquid-fueled equipment for maintenance. Here, the effect is likely to be less, but costs will increase.
3. Distribution is the element of our electric power infrastructure that seems to be most vulnerable to depleting petroleum. The distribution system is maintained by workers who depend utterly on liquid-fueled vehicles and equipment. Even if depleting fuel supplies are allocated to the power industry (or if alternative liquid fuels are allocated) the cost of maintaining the distribution system will increase, I think a great deal.
In addition to cost pressure on the generation and distribution elements, which will raise the cost to the electric power consumer, I believe that disruptions are inevitable. As I have noted before (see my entries on transportation), I do not expect the U.S. to transition smoothly into an alternative liquid fuel economy. There will be a few years -- maybe as many as ten -- during which the nation scrambles to catch up with declining petroleum supplies (while our society continues to believe that high costs do not denote decreasing supplies). The confusion and misallocation of liquid fuel that will accompany this period will certainly degrade the reliability of the electric power delivery system in the U.S.
Degraded reliability will vary among locations, but in ways that might not be predictable. The vulnerability of the northeastern distribution system was made painfully evident by the August 2003 blackout. On the local scale, some areas of a distribution system are subject to more frequent disruption today, and those areas are likely to experience longer outages as maintenance crews find themselves pinched by fuel supplies.
So here is my scenario:
1. As oil is depleted (but before our society admits it) electric power will become increasingly expensive, pretty much tracking the rise in liquid fuel prices.
2. As liquid petroleum fuel becomes increasingly scarce (but before the federal government decides to allocate the depleting resource) electric power disruptions will increase (both local and regional). Power distribution system owners will be responding to failures, rather than doing preventive maintenance.
3. Centralized power generation facilities will become less reliable, due to difficulties in receiving fuel (coal-fired plants) and in performing preventive maintenance.
4. Gradually, the electric power industry will move back toward pre-transition levels of reliability, but demand will be much lower, because of high prices, as well as the societal and economic changes that will occur, particularly during the transition.
This last point is perhaps the most important. Our society will emerge from the transition living much "smaller". Price will have something to do with this change, but the greater influence will be the period of serious reliability problems that our society will have endured. When power outages in the centralized system are frequent and unpredictable, society will adjust by adopting practices that demand much less power. And when conditions settle down after the transition, price will keep our society from regressing to its previous electric power consumption habits.
Enough for now. Next I will explore how a homeowner or a home builder might prepare for the electric power future.
Posted by aquacura.com at 09:19 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
September 12, 2005
Transportation, Part Trois
I've been waiting politely for comments on the questions I posed regarding how we will transport ourselves and our stuff as oil declines. Paul cited an NRDC study that suggests that liquid fuel could be derived from low-value organics (high cellulose) if the US were to pay some attention to research in this area. I accept this premise, and offer the caveat that we will probably not be able to produce enough liquid fuel to replace our current use of petroleum-based liquid fuels.
I suggest the process will go something like this:
• US society will persist for several years in the belief that petroleum is plentiful, and that the reason for rising prices is rapacious oil companies, rapacious OPEC members, lack of refinery capacity, other countries – China and India, for instance – also wanting oil (imagine!). During this time, corn-derived ethanol will be boosted shamelessly by cornbelt legislators to control cost at the pump, with little effect other than to funnel more corporate welfare to agribusiness. Liquid fuels from cellulose material will have no more funding than it currently enjoys, and research will be limited to the laboratory.
• Eventually, the price of gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas will convince some portion of US society that this is the real thing, and a program to develop economically feasible processes to produce liquid fuels will be funded. This program will take a few years, but say in 5 years there will be enough liquid fuel production capacity to begin to offset some of the decline in petroleum supplies. So maybe consumer prices stabilize. And fuel conservation will probably gain some momentum.
• As petroleum availability continues to decrease, alternate liquid fuels will take up some of the slack, but it will become evident that the US will have to get along with some fraction of the liquid fuel it had been using in the oil age. I have done no research on this, but I am going to WAG that the fraction will be something like ½.
So as it dawns on the nation that we will never again have sufficient liquid fuel to sustain our consumption habits, we have a period of significant social and economic turmoil that might look like this:
• The military sector will be satisfied first. It would seem likely that, at least for a while, liquid fuel will be allocated to sustain the military’s historical use of petroleum. This is likely to be a pretty big chunk (if not all) of the remaining petroleum supplies available to the US, meaning the rest of society may need to divvy up the alternate liquid fuel.
• Airplanes cannot fly without liquid fuel, so the airline industry will get whatever portion of the petroleum supplies left by the military, plus a portion of alternate liquid fuel. It is hard to imagine that the airline industry will be able to survive at anything but a tiny fraction of its current size. Leisure travel by air is likely to become infrequent, and available only to fairly wealthy people.
• The system that transports our stuff – trucks and trains in the continental US and transport ships to bring the toasters and t-shirts from China – works mostly on liquid fuel. A little bit of the country’s rail system is electrified, but most of it relies on diesel. So how much of the rest of the liquid fuel supply do we allocate to moving our stuff? I expect this is the big question that our society will have to answer, because it would seem that stuff transportation and personal transportation are going to have to work this out.
• So what about the fraction of alternate liquid fuel allocated to personal transportation? I suggest that, as the situation sinks in, society will demand a rationing program for personal vehicle use.
Now, let's imagine petroleum becoming increasingly scarce. The military will probably transition toward less fuel demand (and less "projection capability", which means less ability to invade other countries). Airlines might be squeezed more, if that is even possible. And society will have to continue to allocate to stuff transport and personal transport. Somewhere in this period, stuff transport will become very much less -- I mean, a whole lot less -- of our economic system. The global supply lines over which we have gushed for the past couple of decades will cease to exist for toasters and t-shirts.
So how does this translate for individuals and small societal units (SSUs)? Obviously, we should do what we can to conserve liquid fuel now, and we might begin to think and ask about adapting the vehicle we are considering to buy for an alternate liquid fuel (go with ethanol, as corn is used for that, and it will probably be the outcome of future cellulose-based conversion processes). For now, hybrid would seem to be a good choice (the high mileage hybrid, that is).
Also, cut back on trips (change habits), and envision how you will make yourself close to your job as the transition occurs. If you are living at a distance from work now, start thinking of how you will either move yourself closer to work or work closer to you.
As we move deeper into the transition, shared vehicles would probably be a good idea. Shared, of course, within your SSU, where members live in close proximity. You might also have a range of vehicles available for shared use, including one to transport stuff (locally). Like building supplies. But maybe not from Home Depot.
OK, that's enough for now. I look forward to your thoughts. Please don't be shy.
Posted by aquacura.com at 12:06 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
September 10, 2005
A good Texas beer
Bill Hoffman, a friend in Austin, took me to the Bitter End brew pub this week when I was in town. I take back what I said about Texas beer. Their pale ale stands up to anything we produce around here.
Posted by aquacura.com at 10:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack