« Transportation, Part Trois | Main | Five Centuries »

September 20, 2005

Electric power, Part 1

Now that I've proffered my opinions of the changes that will occur in the transportation sector as petroleum-based liquid fuel becomes increasingly scarce (and I've heard only a few comments, so I must be right), we come to the second topic: electric power.

I'll warn you right now that I am not well-versed on this topic. But I told you that wouldn't stop me. I am going to offer some opinions, and would like feedback, with the objective of identifying the provisions a homeowner (or home builder) might make to deal with the transition.

So how will declining supplies of petroleum fuels affect electric power generation and distribution? Let me count the ways:

1. Declining natural gas supplies will affect the generation of power using gas-fired turbines. I believe these units are used to meet peak power demands. We should note that natural gas may deplete less quickly than liquid petroleum (but gas from off-shore sources will be transported by ships that presumably use liquid petroleum fuel).
2. Coal-fired and nuclear power generation will not be affected directly by depleting petroleum (and, of course, hydro). But every part of our society and economy depends on petroleum. Obviously, the trains that haul the coal are pulled by diesel-fueled locomotives, so declining oil will affect this kind of power -- at least by raising the cost of generating it. Nuclear and hydro depend on liquid-fueled equipment for maintenance. Here, the effect is likely to be less, but costs will increase.
3. Distribution is the element of our electric power infrastructure that seems to be most vulnerable to depleting petroleum. The distribution system is maintained by workers who depend utterly on liquid-fueled vehicles and equipment. Even if depleting fuel supplies are allocated to the power industry (or if alternative liquid fuels are allocated) the cost of maintaining the distribution system will increase, I think a great deal.

In addition to cost pressure on the generation and distribution elements, which will raise the cost to the electric power consumer, I believe that disruptions are inevitable. As I have noted before (see my entries on transportation), I do not expect the U.S. to transition smoothly into an alternative liquid fuel economy. There will be a few years -- maybe as many as ten -- during which the nation scrambles to catch up with declining petroleum supplies (while our society continues to believe that high costs do not denote decreasing supplies). The confusion and misallocation of liquid fuel that will accompany this period will certainly degrade the reliability of the electric power delivery system in the U.S.

Degraded reliability will vary among locations, but in ways that might not be predictable. The vulnerability of the northeastern distribution system was made painfully evident by the August 2003 blackout. On the local scale, some areas of a distribution system are subject to more frequent disruption today, and those areas are likely to experience longer outages as maintenance crews find themselves pinched by fuel supplies.

So here is my scenario:

1. As oil is depleted (but before our society admits it) electric power will become increasingly expensive, pretty much tracking the rise in liquid fuel prices.
2. As liquid petroleum fuel becomes increasingly scarce (but before the federal government decides to allocate the depleting resource) electric power disruptions will increase (both local and regional). Power distribution system owners will be responding to failures, rather than doing preventive maintenance.
3. Centralized power generation facilities will become less reliable, due to difficulties in receiving fuel (coal-fired plants) and in performing preventive maintenance.
4. Gradually, the electric power industry will move back toward pre-transition levels of reliability, but demand will be much lower, because of high prices, as well as the societal and economic changes that will occur, particularly during the transition.

This last point is perhaps the most important. Our society will emerge from the transition living much "smaller". Price will have something to do with this change, but the greater influence will be the period of serious reliability problems that our society will have endured. When power outages in the centralized system are frequent and unpredictable, society will adjust by adopting practices that demand much less power. And when conditions settle down after the transition, price will keep our society from regressing to its previous electric power consumption habits.

Enough for now. Next I will explore how a homeowner or a home builder might prepare for the electric power future.

Posted by aquacura.com at September 20, 2005 09:19 PM

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