AquaCura.com: Transportation, Part Two -- Individual choices

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August 29, 2005

Transportation, Part Two -- Individual choices

In my prior entry on this subject, I posed a question about personal choices in selecting liquid-fueled vehicles. This question implied that liquid fuel would still be available, so to paraphrase, "What impact would an individual's action to conserve liquid fuel have in the near and medium term?"

I finished reading James Kuntzler's Long Emergency this weekend, and I am part way through Matthew Simmons' Twilight in the Desert. The ramifications of the decline and end of petroleum seem pretty clear, but I suspect I had not been willing to envision them before reading these books. If global oil production has peaked, and if we are in the beginning stage of the steady divergence of supplies and demand, what difference does an individual's actions to conserve make?

I am not endorsing a carefree attitude. There is certainly a personal economic reason to conserve: saving personal money. But if oil has peaked (or if the peak is in the near future) we are only buying time before reaching the same point by conserving now.

My pessimism is based on the demonstrated fecklessness of our federal government. I won't get started, but has anyone seen any signs of leadership lately? And can we say Congress is anything but a reflection of our U.S. society? (I guess I will get started) Jimmy Carter talked frankly to the U.S. He told us that we needed to conserve energy. He was laughed out of office. So I guess it's our society that is feckless.

Back to the question, then. Does it make any difference if we conserve liquid fuel now? (Put aside the climate change issue). Perhaps, when it becomes apparent that oil supplies are really not going to increase to keep up with demand, our federal government will recognize that we should treat the remaining supplies as strategic materials. Ration liquid fuels to residents and support freight transport? What freight transport? Goods made in China delivered to WalMarts? Should commercial airlines be allocated liquid fuel rations? For business travelers? Leisure travelers? (How long would Las Vegas survive economically if leisure travelers could not get there by air?)

Can we really visualize today's U.S. society making these kinds of decisions? I can visualize one last, grand lobbying orgy, before our current system of government fades away.

My guess is that, when it happens, we will ride the declining curve down, paying steadily higher prices for depleting petro products (that's the free market), with consumers dropping off as they reach the price level that, for them, is untenable. And then, one day, it will be gone.

So the question becomes, what should an individual or SSU do during this ride? In terms of transportation choices, it would seem logical to drive a fuel-efficient vehicle and to get serious about decreasing the number of trips. A mileage budget?

Posted by aquacura.com at August 29, 2005 04:08 PM

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