AquaCura.com: The end of petroleum, Part 1

« The challenge ahead | Main | Transportation »

August 19, 2005

The end of petroleum, Part 1

OK, here we go. I need to reiterate my standing as a green building professional, not an energy expert. But yesterday I attended a lecture by Dan Desmond, Deputy Secretary for Energy and Technology Development at PA DEP, where my feeling of urgency was turned up a couple of notches. Dan explored the question, Is World Oil Production Peaking? as part of the Rachel Carson Forum on the Future of the Environment.

The short version is: The sky is not falling, but we should have started serious planning for the end of petroleum last week.

For future lectures in the Rachel Carson series, contact Penn Future at info@pennfuture.org

Yesterday's (8/21/05) NYT Magazine had a cover article on the oil peaking question, specifically related to Saudi Arabia. See this link for the article (you might have to sign in)http://www.nytimes.com/pages/magazine/index.html

The plot thickens! In today's (8/23/05) NYT, columnist John Tierney reports on a wager he has made with Matthew Simmons, author of a current book in which he speculates that Saudi Arabia has passed, or is near, its peak oil production. See this link: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/23/opinion/23tierney.html

First, we are not going to fall off a cliff. When global petroleum extraction peaks, the downward trajectory will take some time. The problem is, we cannot know whether production has peaked until some time after the peak has occurred. And we can only dream of being able to predict the peak, if only because many oil-producing nations do not provide reliable information regarding their reserves.

The US and Britain have already recognized and admitted to their peaks. Indonesia seems to have peaked, and is now a net importer of petroleum. The huge question marks are the middle eastern oil fields where reserves are simply unknowable. However, circumstantial evidence offers a discomforting view that production in this part of the world might be peaking.

Opinions of experts vary across the map. Some say we are on the downward side of the global peak, while others lay claim to the next couple of generations. One book, Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons describes the author's experience when he served on a task force commissioned by the CIA to define the range of possible conditions of oil reserves in Saudi Arabia. He presents a plausible argument that the Saudis have pressed extraction so hard that they may have seen the peak from their fields.

Another piece of circumstantial evidence is the increasing gap between global demand and global production. In 2000 and 2001, the world consumed 1 million barrels more each day than was produced. Last year, the gap had grown to 2 million barrels a day, and the projection for next year is 4 million barrels a day. This steadily increasing difference could mean that neither technology nor high oil prices are going to get us out of this dilemma. Further, annual oil production has exceeded additional reserves identified (bear in mind the huge uncertainty of reserve estimates) for the past 15 years.

The deficit seems to be resistant to both technology and to high prices.

We may very well be drawing from principle.

I hope this dissertation provides a reasonable basis for the discussion in which I want to engage: what can we do to prepare for the end of petroleum. It's not an academic exercise. It is possible that my generation might face it; my children's generation is more likely to face it; and my grandchildren (already five of them) are pretty certain to have to deal with it.

So let's consider this a practice run.

As I noted in an earlier entry, I will be offering thoughts in a number of areas, including:

Transportation
Electric power
Food for consumption
Stuff
Heating
Agriculture

I am interested in sharing ideas about what our society needs to do, but I am most keenly interested in what we might do as individuals or small societal units. Moving to the mountains with heavy weaponry is not an option; we are a gentle people. So as amusing as Mad Max is on the big screen, we cannot opt for that life.

Posted by aquacura.com at August 19, 2005 12:28 PM

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