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August 29, 2005
Transportation, Part Two -- Individual choices
In my prior entry on this subject, I posed a question about personal choices in selecting liquid-fueled vehicles. This question implied that liquid fuel would still be available, so to paraphrase, "What impact would an individual's action to conserve liquid fuel have in the near and medium term?"
I finished reading James Kuntzler's Long Emergency this weekend, and I am part way through Matthew Simmons' Twilight in the Desert. The ramifications of the decline and end of petroleum seem pretty clear, but I suspect I had not been willing to envision them before reading these books. If global oil production has peaked, and if we are in the beginning stage of the steady divergence of supplies and demand, what difference does an individual's actions to conserve make?
I am not endorsing a carefree attitude. There is certainly a personal economic reason to conserve: saving personal money. But if oil has peaked (or if the peak is in the near future) we are only buying time before reaching the same point by conserving now.
My pessimism is based on the demonstrated fecklessness of our federal government. I won't get started, but has anyone seen any signs of leadership lately? And can we say Congress is anything but a reflection of our U.S. society? (I guess I will get started) Jimmy Carter talked frankly to the U.S. He told us that we needed to conserve energy. He was laughed out of office. So I guess it's our society that is feckless.
Back to the question, then. Does it make any difference if we conserve liquid fuel now? (Put aside the climate change issue). Perhaps, when it becomes apparent that oil supplies are really not going to increase to keep up with demand, our federal government will recognize that we should treat the remaining supplies as strategic materials. Ration liquid fuels to residents and support freight transport? What freight transport? Goods made in China delivered to WalMarts? Should commercial airlines be allocated liquid fuel rations? For business travelers? Leisure travelers? (How long would Las Vegas survive economically if leisure travelers could not get there by air?)
Can we really visualize today's U.S. society making these kinds of decisions? I can visualize one last, grand lobbying orgy, before our current system of government fades away.
My guess is that, when it happens, we will ride the declining curve down, paying steadily higher prices for depleting petro products (that's the free market), with consumers dropping off as they reach the price level that, for them, is untenable. And then, one day, it will be gone.
So the question becomes, what should an individual or SSU do during this ride? In terms of transportation choices, it would seem logical to drive a fuel-efficient vehicle and to get serious about decreasing the number of trips. A mileage budget?
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August 23, 2005
Transportation
This is the first category for our end of oil discussion. Of course, many (or all) of the categories will overlap, particularly with transportation, since it is not likely that any part of our lives today are not touched by liquid fueled transportation.
First, how do we propose to transport our personal selves in the declining days of oil? Presumably, we would gradually opt for vehicles that use petroleum more efficiently, such as the high mileage hybrids (as opposed to the conventional mileage hybrids). We are only able to buy the vehicles that the manufacturers build for the marketplace. Is "voting with our pocketbooks" by purchasing high mileage vehicles all we can do? My decision in 2002 to buy a Toyota Prius was strongly influenced by my desire to demonstrate to Toyota that people are willing to buy their car.
Next, what about mass transportation for people -- by ground and by air?
Whew! I don't know much about alternative fuels for aircraft. Are we bound to liquid fuels? As opposed to gaseous -- I think we can rule out solid fuels (Boeing introduces a new coal-burner). What about hydrogen, setting aside the likely discomfort of the travelling public related to the Hindenburg zeppelin.
So if its liquid fuels, can they be derived from sources other than petroleum? Solid hydrocarbon (coal)? Does biomass fit here? Ethanol? Biodiesel?
Now, what about our actions, as individuals and small societal units? (I'm going to dub them SSUs, since we'll be using the term extensively in our discussions) We could do less long distance travelling. Long distance travelling has become pretty much a part of our work and leisure. I suppose secondary effects, like our professional and trade organizations reshaping their meeting programs, will take shape based on the cost of air transportation. For now, what can individuals and SSUs do?
What about long distance surface transport? First, people. It would seem logical to maintain at least some toehold in intercity rail passenger transport. If the rails continue to exist (for freight, at least) will that be enough to allow us to re-opt for passenger rail transport?
How about trucks and buses? Would biodiesel work? Can we envision enough vegetable oil to offset petroleum? Will coal-derived liquids have a place?
I am looking forward to our discussion.
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August 19, 2005
The end of petroleum, Part 1
OK, here we go. I need to reiterate my standing as a green building professional, not an energy expert. But yesterday I attended a lecture by Dan Desmond, Deputy Secretary for Energy and Technology Development at PA DEP, where my feeling of urgency was turned up a couple of notches. Dan explored the question, Is World Oil Production Peaking? as part of the Rachel Carson Forum on the Future of the Environment.
The short version is: The sky is not falling, but we should have started serious planning for the end of petroleum last week.
For future lectures in the Rachel Carson series, contact Penn Future at info@pennfuture.org
Yesterday's (8/21/05) NYT Magazine had a cover article on the oil peaking question, specifically related to Saudi Arabia. See this link for the article (you might have to sign in)http://www.nytimes.com/pages/magazine/index.html
The plot thickens! In today's (8/23/05) NYT, columnist John Tierney reports on a wager he has made with Matthew Simmons, author of a current book in which he speculates that Saudi Arabia has passed, or is near, its peak oil production. See this link: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/23/opinion/23tierney.html
First, we are not going to fall off a cliff. When global petroleum extraction peaks, the downward trajectory will take some time. The problem is, we cannot know whether production has peaked until some time after the peak has occurred. And we can only dream of being able to predict the peak, if only because many oil-producing nations do not provide reliable information regarding their reserves.
The US and Britain have already recognized and admitted to their peaks. Indonesia seems to have peaked, and is now a net importer of petroleum. The huge question marks are the middle eastern oil fields where reserves are simply unknowable. However, circumstantial evidence offers a discomforting view that production in this part of the world might be peaking.
Opinions of experts vary across the map. Some say we are on the downward side of the global peak, while others lay claim to the next couple of generations. One book, Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons describes the author's experience when he served on a task force commissioned by the CIA to define the range of possible conditions of oil reserves in Saudi Arabia. He presents a plausible argument that the Saudis have pressed extraction so hard that they may have seen the peak from their fields.
Another piece of circumstantial evidence is the increasing gap between global demand and global production. In 2000 and 2001, the world consumed 1 million barrels more each day than was produced. Last year, the gap had grown to 2 million barrels a day, and the projection for next year is 4 million barrels a day. This steadily increasing difference could mean that neither technology nor high oil prices are going to get us out of this dilemma. Further, annual oil production has exceeded additional reserves identified (bear in mind the huge uncertainty of reserve estimates) for the past 15 years.
The deficit seems to be resistant to both technology and to high prices.
We may very well be drawing from principle.
I hope this dissertation provides a reasonable basis for the discussion in which I want to engage: what can we do to prepare for the end of petroleum. It's not an academic exercise. It is possible that my generation might face it; my children's generation is more likely to face it; and my grandchildren (already five of them) are pretty certain to have to deal with it.
So let's consider this a practice run.
As I noted in an earlier entry, I will be offering thoughts in a number of areas, including:
Transportation
Electric power
Food for consumption
Stuff
Heating
Agriculture
I am interested in sharing ideas about what our society needs to do, but I am most keenly interested in what we might do as individuals or small societal units. Moving to the mountains with heavy weaponry is not an option; we are a gentle people. So as amusing as Mad Max is on the big screen, we cannot opt for that life.
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August 11, 2005
The challenge ahead
You have probably read recently of the debate among petroleum folks regarding the amount of oil left in the ground today. Some say that worldwide production has peaked, and that extraction will decrease at a quickening rate from now until the last of the recoverable oil has been pumped. Others say that there is still plenty of oil, and that the peak is farther away than one can foresee with today's information.
Whichever group is correct, there is no doubt whatsoever that petroleum supplies will be exhausted someday in the future.
So let's imagine that the end of oil is near, and envision how we would contend.
What would change?
What wouldn't change? Every aspect of our lives involves petroleum. If we include natural gas, we are even more fully dependent. (In fact, here in the U.S., natural gas availability is related to oil availability, since some of our gas -- and an increasing amount in the future -- is transported to our shores in LNG tankers that run on fuel oil)
This isn't going to be a polemic. If you believe that hydrocarbons will last well into the 21st century, then take this as perhaps an interesting exercise. If you are concerned, as I am, that the end may be a lot closer at hand, then this exercise might be a useful opportunity to sort out some ideas and create the outline of a plan to deal with the impacts.
First, let's list the aspects of our lives that will be affected when the oil runs out:
Transportation -- this is the biggie
Electric power
Food for consumption -- most of it comes from a distance
Stuff -- it all comes to us on trucks
Heating
Agriculture -- the raw materials of our food
I'll be taking up each of these aspects over the next few weeks.
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August 10, 2005
Texas beer
I just got back from a family reunion in Galveston, Texas. No, we're not from Texas, but several of my siblings followed my parents when they relocated from Pennsylvania to the Houston area.
During the week I was there, I tried unsuccessfully to find a decent local brew. The stores carried the predictable Anheuser/Coors/Miller brands, as well as a couple of Texas brews. I will politely compare them favorably to our own Keystone.
My sister-in-law, a real Texan (but not a beer drinker), told me that there was said to be a brew pub in the Strand area. I went to the place she described and found a Fuddruckers restaurant, not a brew pub. I never did find a tap with a Texan microbrew, although my search was admittedly not exhaustive. It was a family reunion, after all.
I came away with an enhanced appreciation for our local hotbed of breweries: Appalachian, Troegs, Lancaster, Stoudts, Weyerbacher, Victory.
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August 09, 2005
Another good WalMart story
Showing my willingness to accept good works from bad actors, see the following link.
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/08-04-2005/0004082553&EDATE=
Posted by aquacura.com at 06:40 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack